James Webb Space Telescope, 1989–2022

From first idea to first light: 33 years.

AI can help write a better telescope proposal in a week, and the approval still takes years.

AI reaches 3 of the 8 steps today — 9½ of the 33 years, still leaving 23½ years that AI is unlikely to shorten soon. Reaching a step is not the same as shortening it.

Science case definition (AI reaches this today)7 yr1989–1996
Concept studies, strategic ranking and design competition6 yr1996–2002
Phase B start and funding authorization2 yr2002–2004
Design maturation (AI reaches this today)2 yr2004–2006
Fabrication5 yr2006–2011
Integration and test9 yr2011–2020
Launch1 yr2020–2021
Commissioning (AI reaches this today)½ yrDec 2021–Jul 2022

AI reaches this step today AI does not reach it yetDurations from the JWST record. Which steps AI reaches is a first pass, not yet checked by a person. See the full path

EssayWhere AI speeds science up, and what’s holding the rest backThe bottleneck is rarely the AI. Three guesses at where it moves instead: getting people to agree, physical construction, and fields with nothing to measure against.Read the essay AnalysisThe Gap Map, with critical pathsAn additive layer on Convergent Research’s Fundamental Development Gap Map. Each of its 103 gaps gets a label for what stands in the way and whether AI reaches it, and some are broken into the steps the work runs through, starting with James Webb and research publishing.Open the analysis